Port FC 3-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Port FC, 1.80 for Prachuap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Port FC 4W, Prachuap 2W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Prachuap — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 56% versus Prachuap 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 53% | Prachuap 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.89 xG and Prachuap 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.386 / defence 0.718 | Prachuap attack 0.912 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.129. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Port FC's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Port FC games / 55 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 62% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 12%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Prachuap 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 30% | Prachuap 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 62% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Port FC 1.89 / Prachuap 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.386 / def 0.718 | Prachuap attack 0.912 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Port FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Prachuap xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Port FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Port FC 3 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Port FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Prachuap part of?
Port FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 62% chance of winning, Prachuap a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Port FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
Record (9 meetings): Port FC 4W | Draws 3 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Prachuap (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.39x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.91x) against Port FC's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
62%
1.60
26%
3.87
12%
8.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.63
0.74
Prachuap xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
8.53
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
2%
56.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Port FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Port FC and 0.74 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC's recent record stands at 27W 14D 14L from 55 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 20W 20D 15L across 55 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Port FC against 1.45 for Prachuap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 16W 8D 3L from 27 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 5W 10D 12L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.47 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 27W 14D 14L in their last 55 games (1.73 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 20W 20D 15L in their last 55 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Prachuap away?
Port FC's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Port FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Prachuap in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Port FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Port FC
3
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Prachuap have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Prachuap?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 59%, Prachuap 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Port FC) and 41% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Prachuap in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Port FC's games and 59% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Port FC's recent games and 41% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Prachuap 3-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.89 xG and Prachuap 0.74 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.72 against Prachuap attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 62% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 12%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 53%, Prachuap 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Prachuap's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.73 PPG, Prachuap 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.