Lamphun Warrior 2-0 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamphun Warrior face Ayutthaya FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ayutthaya FC travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior in Thai League 1 (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 1W 8D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Ayutthaya FC have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamphun Warrior 1.20 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Ayutthaya FC 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Lamphun Warrior 1–1 Ayutthaya FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 86%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 68% and Ayutthaya FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 52% | Ayutthaya FC 44%). Note also that Ayutthaya FC surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Lamphun Warrior recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.25 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.988 / defence 1.111 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.035 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.114. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 55 games and Ayutthaya FC's last 25.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.02 | Draw 3.08 | Ayutthaya FC 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 80% (last 10 home games) | Ayutthaya FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 27 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.25 / Ayutthaya FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.988 / def 1.111 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.035 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Ayutthaya FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC FAQs
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 0 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 27) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 33% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamphun Warrior's attack at 0.99x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamphun Warrior's last 55 games and Ayutthaya FC's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.08
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.53
1.28
Ayutthaya FC xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.28 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 3W 14D 8L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 8W 8D 9L from 25 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 0.92 PPG, Ayutthaya FC on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 12 home games (1W 9D 2L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 6W 4D 2L from their last 12 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.28 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Ayutthaya FC in 60%.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior (Home) vs Ayutthaya FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC Form FAQs
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 14D 8L in their last 25 games (0.92 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.00 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Lamphun Warrior have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Ayutthaya FC 0-2 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lamphun Warrior at 83%, Ayutthaya FC at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lamphun Warrior) and 50% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 58% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 75% of Ayutthaya FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ayutthaya FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Ayutthaya FC 2-0 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.25 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 35%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 52%, Ayutthaya FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 0.92 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.