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Poisson rates Buriram United at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC encounter.

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Match Analysis

Buriram United host Ayutthaya FC at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Chang Arena, Buriram United have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ayutthaya FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Buriram United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Buriram United have won 1, Ayutthaya FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 4–1 with Buriram United winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Buriram United trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Ayutthaya FC trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 58% versus Ayutthaya FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 73% | Ayutthaya FC 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.28 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.682 / defence 0.847 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.933 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.087. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.682 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Buriram United games / 26 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Buriram United 68% | Draw 22% | Ayutthaya FC 11%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Ayutthaya FC 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Buriram United 50% | Ayutthaya FC 40%.

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