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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ratchaburi have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ratchaburi away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Lamphun Warrior, 1.50 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ratchaburi in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 3 for Ratchaburi and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–5 with Ratchaburi winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 59% versus Ratchaburi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 48% | Ratchaburi 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.52 xG and Ratchaburi 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.032 / defence 1.007 | Ratchaburi attack 1.303 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.086. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Lamphun Warrior games / 54 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 37% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 33%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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