BG Pathum United 2-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as BG Pathum United face Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ratchaburi travel to BG Stadium to take on BG Pathum United in Thai League 1 (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
BG Pathum United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ratchaburi — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ratchaburi have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (BG Pathum United) versus 1.90 (Ratchaburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of BG Pathum United's games and 60% of Ratchaburi's (from BG Pathum United's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, BG Pathum United have won 4, Ratchaburi 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended BG Pathum United 0–0 Ratchaburi — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
BG Pathum United trading profile (last 52 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi trading profile (last 52 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 58% versus Ratchaburi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 50% | Ratchaburi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.57 xG and Ratchaburi 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.118 / defence 1.158 | Ratchaburi attack 1.287 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.132. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack rating of 1.287, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from BG Pathum United's last 54 games and Ratchaburi's last 52.
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 34% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 39%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.95 | Draw 3.66 | Ratchaburi 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BG Pathum United's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BG Pathum United 60% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 34% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG BG Pathum United 1.57 / Ratchaburi 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.118 / def 1.158 | Ratchaburi attack 1.287 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Ratchaburi xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi FAQs
What time does BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United 2 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi part of?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 34% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (1.12) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from BG Pathum United's last 54 games and Ratchaburi's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
34%
2.95
27%
3.66
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
3.25
1.69
Ratchaburi xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
6%
15.95
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.69 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 25W 15D 12L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Ratchaburi's form line: 28W 10D 14L from 52 games, 1.81 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: BG Pathum United on 1.73 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, BG Pathum United have posted 2.12 PPG from their last 24 home games (16W 3D 5L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 12W 3D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.94 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
BG Pathum United (Home) vs Ratchaburi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BG Pathum United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi Form FAQs
What form are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 25W 15D 12L in their last 52 games (1.73 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 28W 10D 14L in their last 52 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Ratchaburi away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.12 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.62 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won Ratchaburi 3-0 BG Pathum United.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BG Pathum United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: BG Pathum United 2-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 50%, Ratchaburi 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (BG Pathum United) and 62% (Ratchaburi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of BG Pathum United's games and 62% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of BG Pathum United's matches and 62% of Ratchaburi's.
Do BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 67% of Ratchaburi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.57 xG and Ratchaburi 1.69 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.12 / defence 1.16 against Ratchaburi attack 1.29 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 34% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 39%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 50%, Ratchaburi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.73 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.