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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Prachuap take on Bangkok United.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Prachuap welcome Bangkok United to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 6W 3D 1L at Sam Ao Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Bangkok United have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Bangkok United have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Prachuap 1.70 PPG, Bangkok United 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bangkok United, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Prachuap.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–4 with Bangkok United winning.

It is worth noting that Bangkok United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Prachuap in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Bangkok United in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Bangkok United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 44% | Bangkok United 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.11 xG and Bangkok United 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.121 / defence 0.957 | Bangkok United attack 0.956 / defence 0.682. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.132. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.682 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Prachuap games / 52 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Prachuap 34% | Draw 35% | Bangkok United 31%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Bangkok United 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Bangkok United 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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