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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Ratchaburi host Ayutthaya FC at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Ratchaburi — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ratchaburi at 1.90 PPG versus Ayutthaya FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 0 for Ayutthaya FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Ratchaburi winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 52% versus Ayutthaya FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 48% | Ayutthaya FC 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.31 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.010 / defence 0.888 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.960 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.133. Data: 51 Ratchaburi games / 23 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 33% | Ayutthaya FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Ayutthaya FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 40% | Ayutthaya FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

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