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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Sukhothai FC travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sukhothai FC's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chonburi FC, 3 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Sukhothai FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 58% versus Sukhothai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 46% | Sukhothai FC 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.70 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.844 / defence 1.077 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.583 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.143. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Chonburi FC games / 54 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 59% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Sukhothai FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Sukhothai FC lead the H2H ledger, but Chonburi FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 70% | Sukhothai FC 30%.

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