Rayong FC 2-1 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kanchanaburi make the trip to Rayong Provincial Stadium to face Rayong FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Rayong FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Rayong Provincial Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rayong FC are significantly better at Rayong Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kanchanaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kanchanaburi have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Rayong FC, 1.20 for Kanchanaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rayong FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Kanchanaburi in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rayong FC 0W, Kanchanaburi 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rayong FC half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kanchanaburi half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 72% and Kanchanaburi 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 52% | Kanchanaburi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.97 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.133 / defence 1.068 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.819 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.124. Data: 53 Rayong FC games / 25 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 58% | Draw 26% | Kanchanaburi 16%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Kanchanaburi 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rayong FC (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayong FC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 70% | Kanchanaburi 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 58% | Draw 26% | Kanchanaburi 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Rayong FC 1.97 / Kanchanaburi 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.133 / def 1.068 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.819 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Kanchanaburi xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Rayong FC 2 - 1 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 58% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Rayong FC 0W | Draws 1 | Kanchanaburi 0W.
What form are Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Kanchanaburi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rayong FC's attack rating (1.13) and Kanchanaburi's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kanchanaburi's attack (0.82x) against Rayong FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 53/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.91
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.95
0.98
Kanchanaburi xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
2%
44.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Rayong FC and 0.98 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 8W 8D 9L from 25 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kanchanaburi, meanwhile, have gone 4W 10D 11L across 25 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rayong FC by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kanchanaburi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 6W 4D 2L from 12 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kanchanaburi's away record stands at 1W 4D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rayong FC are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 4W 10D 11L in their last 25 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.83 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
1
Draws
0
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Kanchanaburi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Rayong FC 2-1 Kanchanaburi.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayong FC 67%, Kanchanaburi 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rayong FC) and 42% (Kanchanaburi).
On the defensive side: Rayong FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kanchanaburi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Kanchanaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rayong FC's games and 58% of Kanchanaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rayong FC's recent games and 42% of Kanchanaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Kanchanaburi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayong FC edge out Kanchanaburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Kanchanaburi 2-1 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.97 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.98 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.07 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 58% | Draw 26% | Kanchanaburi 16%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 52%, Kanchanaburi 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayong FC arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.