Al Najma 2-1 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Kholood at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al Kholood encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Al Kholood travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al Najma in Pro League (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:35 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Najma have gone 0W 4D 6L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al Najma have posted 0W 3D 6L from their last 9 home games — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Kholood stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al Kholood's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Kholood are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Al Najma, 1 for Al Kholood and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 6.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Al Najma 1–5 Al Kholood — a Al Kholood win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al Najma in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Najma 65% versus Al Kholood 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Najma 60% | Al Kholood 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.22 xG and Al Kholood 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.890 / defence 1.365 | Al Kholood attack 1.156 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.342. Al Najma's defence rating of 1.365 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Kholood's projected output up. Data: built from Al Najma's last 20 games and Al Kholood's last 54.

Result probabilities: Al Najma 21% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 58%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 4.78 | Draw 4.65 | Al Kholood 1.74. The model has a clear lean to Al Kholood (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.22 / 2.12) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Kholood at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Najma's last 9 home games and Al Kholood's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Najma 78% (last 9 home games) | Al Kholood 40% (last 10 away games).

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