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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.

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Full Analysis

King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Across 9 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 63% versus Al-Fayha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 57% | Al-Fayha 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.66 xG and Al-Fayha 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.865 / defence 0.787 | Al-Fayha attack 0.746 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.344. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Al-Ittihad FC games / 54 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.

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