Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 63% versus Al-Fayha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 57% | Al-Fayha 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.66 xG and Al-Fayha 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.865 / defence 0.787 | Al-Fayha attack 0.746 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.344. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Al-Ittihad FC games / 54 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.66 / Al-Fayha 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.865 / def 0.787 | Al-Fayha attack 0.746 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Al-Fayha xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 13 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 58% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 5W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (0.86) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.75x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.01
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.45
0.79
Al-Fayha xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
3%
30.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.79 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 36W 9D 9L from 54 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 23L across 54 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 22W 1D 4L from 27 games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 5W 7D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.91 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 36W 9D 9L in their last 54 games (2.17 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 14W 17D 23L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.48 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 56%, Al-Fayha 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 59% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 44% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 59% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Fayha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fayha 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.66 xG and Al-Fayha 0.79 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.79 against Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 1.31, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 17%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 57%, Al-Fayha 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.