Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 41%, yet in-form Al-Hazm provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Okhdood make the trip to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Thursday 12 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hazm have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 2W 1D 6L from 9 Pro League appearances (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Okhdood's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Hazm. A 0.60 PPG lead over Al Okhdood (1.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Hazm, 1 for Al Okhdood and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 60% versus Al Okhdood 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 60% | Al Okhdood 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.38 xG and Al Okhdood 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.783 / defence 1.765 | Al Okhdood attack 0.652 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.332. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Al-Hazm games / 54 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 34% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Al Okhdood 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Hazm (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 56% | Al Okhdood 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 34% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hazm 1.38 / Al Okhdood 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.783 / def 1.765 | Al Okhdood attack 0.652 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Al Okhdood xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 12 February 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Hazm 2 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 34% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hazm 1W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.78) and Al Okhdood's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.65x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
34%
2.97
26%
3.90
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.91
1.53
Al Okhdood xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
7%
13.77
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.53 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 5W 6D 9L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood's form line: 2W 4D 14L from 20 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hazm are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 8L from 9 away games — 0.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.75 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 2W 4D 14L in their last 20 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Hazm's home record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.78 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 56%, Al Okhdood 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Hazm) and 44% (Al Okhdood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 44% of games; Al Okhdood in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 33% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Hazm's matches and 44% of Al Okhdood's.
Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Al Okhdood 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al Okhdood 2-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.38 xG and Al Okhdood 1.53 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.78 / defence 1.76 against Al Okhdood attack 0.65 / defence 1.21, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 34% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 41%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Hazm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 60%, Al Okhdood 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.