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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Najma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Najma in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Thursday 5 February 2026 at 15:20 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Fayha have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fayha at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Al Najma (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Najma's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Fayha's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al Najma's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 0 for Al Najma and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Fayha winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al Najma — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 53% and Al Najma 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al Najma 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.54 xG and Al Najma 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.870 / defence 0.961 | Al Najma attack 0.580 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.357. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Al-Fayha games / 19 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 55% | Draw 27% | Al Najma 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Al Najma 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 40% | Al Najma 60%.

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