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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM encounter.

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Full Analysis

Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium plays host to Al-Qadisiyah FC versus NEOM in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Thursday 12 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

NEOM's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.

NEOM's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.67 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, NEOM in 78%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Qadisiyah FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

NEOM — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% and NEOM 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | NEOM 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.10 xG and NEOM 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.333 / defence 0.750 | NEOM attack 0.892 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.332. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 20 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% | Draw 21% | NEOM 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | NEOM 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | NEOM 78% BTTS from recent games.

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