🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al Kholood welcome Al Shabab to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Kholood have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al Shabab — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Kholood 0.70 PPG, Al Shabab 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Kholood, 2 for Al Shabab and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Al Kholood winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 55% versus Al Shabab 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 60% | Al Shabab 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 0.95 xG and Al Shabab 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.744 / defence 1.368 | Al Shabab attack 0.834 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.344. Al Kholood's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Al Kholood games / 53 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 23% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 51%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Al Shabab 1.96. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al Shabab 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights