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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Al Najma travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Najma — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Najma have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 2.10 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al Najma 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.

Al Najma trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% versus Al Najma 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Al Najma 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.71 xG and Al Najma 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.444 / defence 0.732 | Al Najma attack 0.540 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.329. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.444 — their λ of 2.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 21 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% | Draw 12% | Al Najma 5%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.20 | Draw 8.33 | Al Najma 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (83%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al Najma 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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