Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Al Najma travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Najma — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Najma have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 2.10 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al Najma 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Al Najma trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% versus Al Najma 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Al Najma 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.71 xG and Al Najma 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.444 / defence 0.732 | Al Najma attack 0.540 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.329. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.444 — their λ of 2.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 21 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% | Draw 12% | Al Najma 5%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.20 | Draw 8.33 | Al Najma 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (83%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al Najma 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% | Draw 12% | Al Najma 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.71 / Al Najma 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.444 / def 0.732 | Al Najma attack 0.540 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Al Najma xG
38%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 19 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 4 - 1 Al Najma.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 83% chance of winning, Al Najma a 5% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Najma will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Najma?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 0 | Al Najma 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Najma in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Al Najma (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.44) and Al Najma's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Najma's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
83%
1.21
12%
8.06
5%
21.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.24
0.53
Al Najma xG
1.21
83%
Home win
8.06
12%
Draw
21.51
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
7%
15.07
Win to Nil
49%
2.04
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 7.6 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.53 for Al Najma, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 21 games, going 15W 5D 1L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Najma sit at 0.38 PPG from 21 outings (1W 5D 15L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Najma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Al Najma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 8W 3D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Najma have taken 0.18 points per game from 11 outings (0W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Al Najma are on 0.95 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma in 67%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Najma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Najma in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 15W 5D 1L in their last 21 games (2.38 PPG), while Al Najma have gone 1W 5D 15L in their last 21 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Najma away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.45 PPG; Al Najma away: 0.18 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Najma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Al Najma in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0
Draws
0
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Najma?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, Al Najma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Najma last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Najma?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 64%, Al Najma 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 64% (Al Najma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al Najma in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Najma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 54% of Al Najma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Najma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 64% of Al Najma's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Najma tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Najma in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Najma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Najma 4-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.71 xG and Al Najma 0.53 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.44 / defence 0.73 against Al Najma attack 0.54 / defence 1.29, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% | Draw 12% | Al Najma 5%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 83%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%, Al Najma 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Najma's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.27 average — above their attacking norm. Al Najma (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.