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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al Shabab host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026 at 13:55 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 9 away clean sheets from 10 games (90%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Shabab, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al Shabab in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 57% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 54% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 0.69 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.899 / defence 1.014 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.867 / defence 0.531. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.319. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.531 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Al Shabab games / 54 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 22% | Draw 32% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.13. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Al Shabab's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 10% BTTS from recent games.

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