Al-Fateh 0-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Al Fateh club stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Nassr (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Nassr have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Al-Nassr hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–5 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 68% and Al-Nassr 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 57% | Al-Nassr 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.57 xG and Al-Nassr 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.187 / defence 1.254 | Al-Nassr attack 1.369 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.332. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — the away xG of 2.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Al-Fateh games / 54 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 53%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.85 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Nassr 1.89. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 2.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Nassr 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Al-Fateh 1.57 / Al-Nassr 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.187 / def 1.254 | Al-Nassr attack 1.369 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
2.29
Al-Nassr xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Fateh 0 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 26% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 53% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 6W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.19x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.37x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 2.29.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
26%
3.86
21%
4.83
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.86
2.29
Al-Nassr xG
3.86
26%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
10%
9.84
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
3%
37.93
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 2.29 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fateh come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 12D 25L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.15 PPG from 54 outings (36W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fateh's home form reads 11W 5D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.11 points per game from 27 outings (18W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.39 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al-Nassr in 67%.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 17W 12D 25L in their last 54 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 36W 8D 10L in their last 54 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.41 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Al-Nassr 3-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Al-Fateh, 67% for Al-Nassr — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Fateh and 78% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Al-Fateh's games and 67% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Fateh's matches and 78% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 0-2 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.57 xG and Al-Nassr 2.29 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.19 / defence 1.25 against Al-Nassr attack 1.37 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 53%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 57%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.