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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Al Fateh club stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Nassr (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Nassr have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Al-Nassr hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–5 with Al-Nassr winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 68% and Al-Nassr 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 57% | Al-Nassr 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.57 xG and Al-Nassr 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.187 / defence 1.254 | Al-Nassr attack 1.369 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.332. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — the away xG of 2.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Al-Fateh games / 54 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 53%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.85 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Nassr 1.89. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 2.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean.

The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Nassr 50% BTTS from recent games.

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