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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 February 2026 at 15:25 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 8W 2D 0L at Kingdom Arena — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ettifaq (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Ettifaq in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across 9 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 5–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% and Al-Ettifaq 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.28 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.386 / defence 0.750 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.106 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.354. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 54 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ettifaq 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Ettifaq 70% BTTS from recent games.

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