Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Fateh face Damac.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Damac travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh in Pro League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Fateh — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Al-Fateh at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Damac have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Damac's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fateh 1.00 PPG, Damac 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Fateh's games and 60% of Damac's (from Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Damac and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2025, ended Al-Fateh 1–1 Damac — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Damac in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 68% and Damac 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 58% | Damac 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.02 xG and Damac 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.082 / defence 1.192 | Damac attack 0.624 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.389. Damac's defence rating of 1.263 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fateh's projected output up. Damac's attack rating of 0.624 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 57 games and Damac's last 57.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 60% | Draw 23% | Damac 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.68 | Draw 4.44 | Damac 5.58. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 80% (last 10 home games) | Damac 60% (last 10 away games).

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