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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood meet at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Okhdood have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Okhdood away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al-Fateh's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al Okhdood and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with Al-Fateh winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 68% versus Al Okhdood 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 57% | Al Okhdood 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.96 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.085 / defence 1.205 | Al Okhdood attack 0.615 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.393. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Al-Fateh games / 56 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 59% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Al Okhdood 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al Okhdood 40% BTTS from recent games.

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