Al-Fateh 2-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood meet at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Okhdood have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al-Fateh's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al Okhdood and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 68% versus Al Okhdood 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 57% | Al Okhdood 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.96 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.085 / defence 1.205 | Al Okhdood attack 0.615 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.393. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Al-Fateh games / 56 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 59% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Al Okhdood 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al Okhdood 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Monday 23 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 59% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Fateh 1.96 / Al Okhdood 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.085 / def 1.205 | Al Okhdood attack 0.615 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al Okhdood xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 February 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Fateh 2 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 59% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.08x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.61x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.48
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.00
1.03
Al Okhdood xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
37.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.03 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 12D 27L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.79 PPG from 56 outings (11W 11D 34L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Al-Fateh against 0.79 for Al Okhdood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fateh's home form reads 10W 5D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.81 points per game from 27 outings (6W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.91 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 17W 12D 27L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 11W 11D 34L in their last 56 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.30 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 82%, Al Okhdood 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Fateh) and 41% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Okhdood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Al-Fateh's games and 41% of Al Okhdood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 41% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fateh edge out Al Okhdood 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Okhdood 2-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.96 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.08 / defence 1.21 against Al Okhdood attack 0.61 / defence 1.23, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 59% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 19%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 57%, Al Okhdood 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.12 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.