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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Riyadh face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Riyadh have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Riyadh's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Riyadh lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 60% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 53% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.62 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.706 / defence 0.993 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.061 / defence 0.591. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.389. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 0.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.591 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Al Riyadh games / 57 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 15% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 6.67 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 20% BTTS from recent games.

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