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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Nassr.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Al-Nassr — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 2.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Nassr, who boast 7 victories compared to 0 for Al-Fayha.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Nassr winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Al-Fayha trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Al-Nassr trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 44% versus Al-Nassr 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Al-Nassr 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.04 xG and Al-Nassr 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.932 / defence 0.915 | Al-Nassr attack 1.456 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.385. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.456 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Al-Fayha games / 57 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Nassr 50%.

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