Al Taawon 3-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Al-Fateh travel to Al Taawon Arena to take on Al Taawon. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's home record at Al Taawon Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawon Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Taawon 1.00 PPG, Al-Fateh 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Taawon register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Fateh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Al Taawon have won 4, Al-Fateh 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 5–2 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 48% versus Al-Fateh 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 38% | Al-Fateh 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.63 xG and Al-Fateh 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.008 / defence 0.903 | Al-Fateh attack 0.931 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.403. Data: 58 Al Taawon games / 58 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fateh 3.70. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Taawon 1.63 / Al-Fateh 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.008 / def 0.903 | Al-Fateh attack 0.931 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al-Fateh xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon 3 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 47% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Record (8 meetings): Al Taawon 4W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.01) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.79
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.81
1.18
Al-Fateh xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
5%
19.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.18 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 24W 14D 20L from 58 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 27L across 58 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taawon on 1.48 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 12W 9D 7L from 28 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 6W 7D 15L across 28 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.36 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 69%.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 18W 13D 27L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.61 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2025, when Al Taawon won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
3
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 54%, Al-Fateh 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Al Taawon) and 50% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al Taawon's games and 57% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Al Taawon's recent games and 50% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al-Fateh 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Fateh 3-2 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.63 xG and Al-Fateh 1.18 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Al-Fateh attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 27%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 38%, Al-Fateh 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.48 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.