Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al-Hazm welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 1.20 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ettifaq have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Al-Hazm.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ettifaq have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 61% versus Al-Ettifaq 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 61% | Al-Ettifaq 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.49 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.824 / defence 1.506 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.943 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.385. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Al-Hazm games / 57 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Ettifaq 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ettifaq 2.08. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 70% | Al-Ettifaq 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Ettifaq 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Hazm 1.49 / Al-Ettifaq 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.824 / def 1.506 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.943 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Al-Ettifaq xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hazm 3 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 29% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 3W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.82) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
29%
3.49
23%
4.28
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.46
1.97
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.49
29%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
14%
7.15
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
4%
24.97
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.97 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 6W 7D 10L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 11W 5D 7L from 23 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 1D 5L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.48 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 11W 5D 7L in their last 23 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 64%, Al-Ettifaq 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al-Hazm and 64% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 36% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Hazm's games and 54% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al-Hazm's matches and 64% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al-Ettifaq 3-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.49 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.97 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.82 / defence 1.51 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Ettifaq 48%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Al-Hazm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 61%, Al-Ettifaq 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Al-Hazm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.