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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al-Hazm welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 1.20 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ettifaq have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Al-Hazm.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ettifaq have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Al-Hazm trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Al-Ettifaq trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 61% versus Al-Ettifaq 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 61% | Al-Ettifaq 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.49 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.824 / defence 1.506 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.943 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.385. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Al-Hazm games / 57 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Ettifaq 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ettifaq 2.08. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 70% | Al-Ettifaq 50% BTTS from recent games.

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