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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Match Analysis

Damac host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Damac — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 1W 4D 5L at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ahli Jeddah — 2.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ahli Jeddah, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Damac.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Damac in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 57% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 0.71 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.753 / defence 0.988 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.090 / defence 0.639. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.393. Damac's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.639 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Damac games / 56 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Damac 17% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%. Fair-value odds: Damac 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Damac 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 20% BTTS from recent games.

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