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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al Taawon travel to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Taawon away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 2 for Al Taawon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Al Taawon winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Al Taawon trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% versus Al Taawon 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Al Taawon 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.77 xG and Al Taawon 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.340 / defence 0.633 | Al Taawon attack 0.997 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.385. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.633 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 57 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taawon 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% | Al Taawon 50% BTTS from recent games.

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