Al Najma 1-3 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Najma at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Najma vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al Najma welcome Al Okhdood to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Najma have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Najma's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Najma at 0.60 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Najma have won 0, Al Okhdood 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Al Okhdood winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Najma trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al Okhdood trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Najma 65% and Al Okhdood 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Najma 65% | Al Okhdood 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.51 xG and Al Okhdood 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.834 / defence 1.421 | Al Okhdood attack 0.635 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.385. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Al Najma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Al Najma games / 57 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Najma 42% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Al Okhdood 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Najma at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Najma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al Najma 80% | Al Okhdood 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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