Al Shabab 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Al Shabab against 2.00 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Al Shabab's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 60% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.28 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.065 / defence 1.233 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.538 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.385. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.538 — the away xG of 2.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Al Shabab games / 57 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 16% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 6.25 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 16% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Shabab 1.28 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.065 / def 1.233 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.538 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
2.63
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
67%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Shabab 3 - 5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 16% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 66% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.54x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 2.63.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.8%), 1-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
16%
6.24
18%
5.49
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
0 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.90
2.63
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
6.24
16%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
7%
13.83
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
1%
86.29
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al Shabab and 2.63 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 24W 13D 20L from 57 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 39W 13D 5L across 57 games — 2.28 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Shabab heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 14W 5D 9L from 28 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 17W 8D 3L across 28 trips, a 2.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.67 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 24W 13D 20L in their last 57 games (1.49 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 39W 13D 5L in their last 57 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.68 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5-0 on 17 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Al Shabab 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Al Shabab, 68% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Shabab and 68% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al Shabab's games and 68% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Shabab's matches and 68% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Shabab 3-5 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.28 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 2.63 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.54 / defence 0.81, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 16% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.