Al-Fateh 0-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Nassr in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Fateh's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Nassr (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Al-Nassr have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Al-Nassr have the stronger record — 6 wins to Al-Fateh's 1, with 1 draw.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Al-Fateh 1–5 Al-Nassr — a Al-Nassr win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Nassr have won 6 of 8 H2H matches, and at 4.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 68% and Al-Nassr 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 57% | Al-Nassr 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fateh surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Al-Nassr have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.57 xG and Al-Nassr 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.187 / defence 1.254 | Al-Nassr attack 1.369 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.332. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.369, which lifts their away xG to 2.29. Al-Fateh's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Nassr's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 54 games and Al-Nassr's last 54.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 53%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.86 | Draw 4.83 | Al-Nassr 1.87. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.57 / 2.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Nassr 6 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 50% (last 10 away games).

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