🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al Kholood at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al Kholood encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Al Kholood travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al Najma. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 15:35 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Najma have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Najma have posted 0W 3D 6L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Kholood's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Kholood are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Najma, 1 for Al Kholood and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 1–5 with Al Kholood winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al Najma in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Najma 65% versus Al Kholood 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Najma 60% | Al Kholood 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.22 xG and Al Kholood 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.890 / defence 1.365 | Al Kholood attack 1.156 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.342. Data: 20 Al Najma games / 54 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Najma 21% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 58%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Al Kholood 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al Kholood (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Kholood at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Najma 78% | Al Kholood 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights