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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al-Fateh.

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Full Analysis

Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium plays host to Al-Qadisiyah FC versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 7W 3D 0L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Fateh (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.60 vs 1.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W, Al-Fateh 0W, 1D.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% and Al-Fateh 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Al-Fateh 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.98 xG and Al-Fateh 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.394 / defence 0.728 | Al-Fateh attack 0.778 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.332. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 53 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 66% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fateh 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Fateh 50%.

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