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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 19 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ettifaq's home record at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Fateh have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Al-Ettifaq.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Fateh winning.

It is worth noting that Al-Fateh have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 56% and Al-Fateh 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 54% | Al-Fateh 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG and Al-Fateh 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.923 / defence 0.868 | Al-Fateh attack 0.819 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.329. Data: 55 Al-Ettifaq games / 55 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fateh 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al-Fateh 60%.

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