Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al-Ettifaq's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al Shabab's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Al-Ettifaq, 1.40 for Al Shabab — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Al-Ettifaq, who have won 4 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against Al Shabab — Al Shabab have 1 win, with 4 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Shabab — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Al-Ettifaq an edge — 4 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 57% versus Al Shabab 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Al Shabab 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.44 xG and Al Shabab 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.081 / defence 0.965 | Al Shabab attack 0.890 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.403. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 58 games and Al Shabab's last 58.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.41 | Draw 3.58 | Al Shabab 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Ettifaq 4 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.44 / Al Shabab 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.081 / def 0.965 | Al Shabab attack 0.890 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al Shabab xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab is a Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 41% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (1.08) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.89x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 58 games and Al Shabab's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.58
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.64
1.21
Al Shabab xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.21 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 25W 13D 20L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Al Shabab's form line: 24W 13D 21L from 58 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.47 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 29 home games (12W 6D 11L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 10W 8D 11L from their last 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.64 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 60%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al Shabab (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 25W 13D 20L in their last 58 games (1.52 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 24W 13D 21L in their last 58 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.45 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won Al Shabab 3-0 Al-Ettifaq on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
5
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Shabab have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 48%, Al Shabab 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Ettifaq) and 48% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 31% of games; Al Shabab in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 52% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 48% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 76% of Al Shabab's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab finished level at 1-1 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.44 xG and Al Shabab 1.21 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.08 / defence 0.96 against Al Shabab attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 31%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.52 PPG, Al Shabab 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.