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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Kholood face Al-Qadisiyah FC.

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Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to face Al Kholood in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Al Kholood (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Kholood's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season.

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 1.10 PPG clear of Al Kholood in recent Pro League fixtures (2.40 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Across the last 3 meetings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Al Kholood's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2025, ended 0–4 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Al Kholood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 55% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 0.88 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.664 / defence 1.268 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.370 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.403. Al Kholood's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — the away xG of 2.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Al Kholood games / 58 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 11% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 9.09 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 40% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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