🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Al-Fayha (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Okhdood face Al-Fayha.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Al Okhdood host Al-Fayha at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 3D 5L at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fayha — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Fayha in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Fayha have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Al Okhdood.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Fayha winning.

It is worth noting that Al-Fayha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 52% versus Al-Fayha 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al-Fayha 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.56 xG and Al-Fayha 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.814 / defence 1.378 | Al-Fayha attack 0.901 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.403. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Al Okhdood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Al Okhdood games / 58 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fayha 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Fayha 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights