Al-Nassr 1-0 NEOM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs NEOM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Saud University Stadium plays host to Al-Nassr versus NEOM in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Saud University Stadium, Al-Nassr have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NEOM have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NEOM have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Nassr's 3.00 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of NEOM's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, NEOM in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Nassr, 0 for NEOM and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
NEOM half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 50% versus NEOM 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 71% | NEOM 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.85 xG and NEOM 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.451 / defence 0.704 | NEOM attack 0.784 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.403. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.451 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.704 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Al-Nassr games / 24 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 62% | Draw 24% | NEOM 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | NEOM 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Nassr 60% | NEOM 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs NEOM | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 62% | Draw 24% | NEOM 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Nassr 1.85 / NEOM 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.451 / def 0.704 | NEOM attack 0.784 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.78
NEOM xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs NEOM kick off?
Al-Nassr vs NEOM kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs NEOM?
Al-Nassr 1 - 0 NEOM.
Where is Al-Nassr vs NEOM being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs NEOM part of?
Al-Nassr vs NEOM is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs NEOM?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 62% chance of winning, NEOM a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs NEOM?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Nassr and NEOM will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs NEOM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and NEOM?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 0 | NEOM 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and NEOM in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. NEOM (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.45x the league average against NEOM's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEOM's attack (0.78x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
62%
1.61
24%
4.22
14%
6.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.62
0.78
NEOM xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
6.99
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
2%
44.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs NEOM?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and NEOM expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.78 for NEOM, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs NEOM?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.54 PPG on a 20W 1D 3L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEOM's form line: 9W 5D 10L from 24 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NEOM.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.73 PPG from 11 outings (10W 0D 1L).
On the road, NEOM have gone 5W 4D 2L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.71 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; NEOM are on 1.21 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
NEOM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and NEOM in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 20W 1D 3L in their last 24 games (2.54 PPG), while NEOM have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or NEOM away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.73 PPG; NEOM away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or NEOM been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, NEOM in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
NEOM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and NEOM?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 2, NEOM have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and NEOM last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 NEOM.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and NEOM?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
NEOM see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 54%, NEOM 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Al-Nassr) and 46% (NEOM). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / NEOM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play NEOM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al-Nassr's games and 73% of NEOM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs NEOM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al-Nassr's matches and 46% of NEOM's.
Do Al-Nassr and NEOM tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, NEOM in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out NEOM 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat NEOM 1-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.85 xG and NEOM 0.78 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Nassr fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.45 / defence 0.70 against NEOM attack 0.78 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 62% | Draw 24% | NEOM 14%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 71%, NEOM 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
NEOM's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.91 scoring average — below par going forward. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.