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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Al-Fayha 2W, Al-Ettifaq 4W, 3D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 44% versus Al-Ettifaq 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 48% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.78 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.923 / defence 0.977 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.875 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.437. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Al-Fayha games / 59 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ettifaq 3.85. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Ettifaq 50%.

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