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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 3 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% versus Al-Ittihad FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.452 / defence 0.760 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.118 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.403. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.452 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 58 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad FC 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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