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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al Shabab host Al Okhdood at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al Shabab — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

On current form, Al Shabab have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Shabab, 1 for Al Okhdood and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 61% versus Al Okhdood 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al Okhdood 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.01 xG and Al Okhdood 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.130 / defence 1.344 | Al Okhdood attack 0.744 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.432. Data: 59 Al Shabab games / 59 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 51% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Al Okhdood 3.70. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 80% | Al Okhdood 50% BTTS from recent games.

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