Stromsgodset 2-2 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kristiansund BK make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Stromsgodset have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kristiansund BK (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Kristiansund BK have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Stromsgodset. A 0.60 PPG lead over Kristiansund BK (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 10 away games) — Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kristiansund BK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Stromsgodset, 3 for Kristiansund BK and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2022, ended Stromsgodset 4–1 Kristiansund BK — a Stromsgodset win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 47% versus Kristiansund BK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 41% | Kristiansund BK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.47 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.033 / defence 0.779 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.867 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.390. Kristiansund BK's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stromsgodset's projected output up. Stromsgodset have a tight defence (rating 0.779), which is pulling Kristiansund BK's projected output down. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 34 games and Kristiansund BK's last 4.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 50% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 24%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.02 | Draw 3.79 | Kristiansund BK 4.16. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though recent form (Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 60% (last 10 home games) | Kristiansund BK 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 5 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 50% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Stromsgodset 1.47 / Kristiansund BK 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.033 / def 0.779 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.867 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Kristiansund BK xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK FAQs
What time does Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK?
Stromsgodset 2 - 2 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 5) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 50% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.03x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.87x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Stromsgodset's last 34 games and Kristiansund BK's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
50%
2.02
26%
3.79
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.41
0.94
Kristiansund BK xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.94 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 13W 3D 16L from 32 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 18L across 32 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stromsgodset by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 8W 1D 7L from their last 16 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 2W 3D 11L across their last 16 away games, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.22 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
Stromsgodset (Home) vs Kristiansund BK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
❓ Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK Form FAQs
What form are Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 13W 3D 16L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.56 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK, the earliest from July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 9 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Kristiansund BK have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won Kristiansund BK 0-3 Stromsgodset on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stromsgodset have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 November 2025: Kristiansund BK 2-1 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 50%, Kristiansund BK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stromsgodset) and 50% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 75% of Kristiansund BK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.47 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.94 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kristiansund BK outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.03 / defence 0.78 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.87 / defence 1.23, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 50% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 24%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 41%, Kristiansund BK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stromsgodset arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.