Fredrikstad 1-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Sandefjord travel to Nye Fredrikstad Stadion to take on Fredrikstad. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Sandefjord — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.27 xG and Sandefjord 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.878 / defence 1.164 | Sandefjord attack 0.965 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.390. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Fredrikstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Fredrikstad games / 33 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 31% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 44%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Sandefjord 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 31% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Fredrikstad 1.27 / Sandefjord 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.878 / def 1.164 | Sandefjord attack 0.965 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Sandefjord xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Fredrikstad 1 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord part of?
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 31% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fredrikstad and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fredrikstad and Sandefjord in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Sandefjord away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 2.90 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.88) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
31%
3.21
25%
4.03
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.83
1.56
Sandefjord xG
3.21
31%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
7%
15.33
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.56 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
Sandefjord
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
0
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Sandefjord?
From 6 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 4, Sandefjord have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-0 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Sandefjord?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Fredrikstad defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Sandefjord 1-0 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.27 xG and Sandefjord 1.56 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Sandefjord attack 0.96 / defence 1.25, drawn from 4/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 31% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 44%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Fredrikstad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.