KFUM Oslo 0-0 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this KFUM Oslo vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KFUM Arena plays host to KFUM Oslo versus Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brann (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brann's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.05 xG and Brann 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.850 / defence 1.326 | Brann attack 1.181 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.390. Data: 4 KFUM Oslo games / 35 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 20% | Brann 63%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 5.88 | Draw 5.00 | Brann 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Brann (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 20% | Brann 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.05 / Brann 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.850 / def 1.326 | Brann attack 1.181 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Brann (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
2.18
Brann xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Brann kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Brann?
KFUM Oslo 0 - 0 Brann.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Brann part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Brann is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 17% chance of winning, Brann a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Brann in?
Brann (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Brann away split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KFUM Oslo's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.18x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.18.
These ratings are built from 4/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
17%
5.80
20%
5.06
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
3.23
2.18
Brann xG
5.80
17%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
11%
8.81
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
2%
51.11
22%
4.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 2.18 for Brann, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
Brann
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
KFUM Oslo
2
Draws
2
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Brann?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 1, Brann have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Brann 2-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at KFUM Oslo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo and Brann finished level at 0-0 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.05 xG and Brann 2.18 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. KFUM Oslo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Brann landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.85 / defence 1.33 against Brann attack 1.18 / defence 1.07, drawn from 4/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 20% | Brann 63%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.