Kristiansund BK 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Ham-Kam travel to Nordmøre stadion to take on Kristiansund BK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kristiansund BK have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Nordmøre stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Nordmøre stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kristiansund BK at 1.00 PPG versus Ham-Kam's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kristiansund BK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ham-Kam in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Ham-Kam 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Kristiansund BK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 59% versus Ham-Kam 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 59% | Ham-Kam 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 0.98 xG and Ham-Kam 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.861 / defence 0.924 | Ham-Kam attack 0.692 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.374. Data: 5 Kristiansund BK games / 36 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 37% | Draw 32% | Ham-Kam 31%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Ham-Kam 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kristiansund BK are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. This conflicts with form data: Kristiansund BK 70% | Ham-Kam 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Nordmøre stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 37% | Draw 32% | Ham-Kam 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Kristiansund BK 0.98 / Ham-Kam 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.861 / def 0.924 | Ham-Kam attack 0.692 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Ham-Kam xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Nordmøre stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Nordmøre stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 37% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.11
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
1.86
0.88
Ham-Kam xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 13.7 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 0.88 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 6W 8D 18L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ham-Kam's form line: 10W 4D 18L from 32 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 0.81 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 4W 1D 11L from 16 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.28 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 games (0.81 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 10W 4D 18L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Ham-Kam away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.06 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
From 7 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 69%, Ham-Kam 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Kristiansund BK and 69% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Kristiansund BK's games and 56% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 69% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam finished level at 1-1 at Nordmøre stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 0.98 xG and Ham-Kam 0.88 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Ham-Kam attack 0.69 / defence 0.97, drawn from 5/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 37% | Draw 32% | Ham-Kam 31%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 59%, Ham-Kam 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 0.81 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.