Lillestrom 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Åråsen Stadion to face Lillestrom in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Lillestrom (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lillestrom's home record at Åråsen Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Lillestrom, 1.10 for Ham-Kam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Lillestrom 2W, Ham-Kam 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 3–1 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 57% versus Ham-Kam 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 60% | Ham-Kam 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.22 xG and Ham-Kam 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.059 / defence 1.454 | Ham-Kam attack 0.690 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.390. Data: 34 Lillestrom games / 35 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 33% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 41%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Ham-Kam 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 50% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 33% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Lillestrom 1.22 / Ham-Kam 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.059 / def 1.454 | Ham-Kam attack 0.690 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Ham-Kam xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam?
Lillestrom 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam part of?
Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 33% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lillestrom and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Ham-Kam?
Record (4 meetings): Lillestrom 2W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Ham-Kam in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (1.06) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.69x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.82
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.62
1.39
Ham-Kam xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.39 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 29W 9D 22L from 60 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 27L across 60 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lillestrom by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ham-Kam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 18W 3D 9L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 6W 8D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.20 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 29W 9D 22L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 16W 17D 27L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Ham-Kam away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.90 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ham-Kam have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 5-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
3
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Ham-Kam?
From 7 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-0 Lillestrom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 53%, Ham-Kam 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Lillestrom and 63% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Lillestrom's games and 67% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Lillestrom's matches and 63% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Lillestrom and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as Lillestrom and Ham-Kam drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.22 xG and Ham-Kam 1.39 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.06 / defence 1.45 against Ham-Kam attack 0.69 / defence 1.00, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 33% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 41%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 60%, Ham-Kam 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.