Rosenborg 1-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bodo/Glimt are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bodo/Glimt in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 67% and Bodo/Glimt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 73% | Bodo/Glimt 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.02 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.092 / defence 0.767 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.431 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.364. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Rosenborg games / 34 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 26% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 48%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 2.08. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rosenborg 70% | Bodo/Glimt 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 26% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Rosenborg 1.02 / Bodo/Glimt 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.092 / def 0.767 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.431 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Bodo/Glimt xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Rosenborg 1 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 26% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (5 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 3 | Bodo/Glimt 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.09) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.43x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
26%
3.88
26%
3.85
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.52
1.50
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
6%
17.32
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.50 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 27W 14D 19L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 40W 10D 10L from 60 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rosenborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.07 PPG from 30 outings (19W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 20W 2D 8L from 30 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.73 scored and 1.32 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 10D 10L in their last 60 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.07 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 24 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
5
Draws
3
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Bodo/Glimt 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 73% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 73% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Rosenborg 1-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.02 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.50 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.09 / defence 0.77 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.43 / defence 0.81, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 26% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 48%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 73%, Bodo/Glimt 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.58. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.