Tromso 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40%, yet in-form Tromso provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to Romssa Arena to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tromso have posted 7W 1D 2L at Romssa Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Tromso's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tromso have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tromso lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–4 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 70% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Tromso 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.36 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.005 / defence 1.163 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.911 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.390. Data: 33 Tromso games / 34 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 35% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tromso (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 35% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Tromso 1.36 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.005 / def 1.163 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.911 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Tromso 0 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 35% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (5 meetings): Tromso 2W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W.
What form are Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Tromso (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tromso's attack at 1.00x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.91x) against Tromso's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
35%
2.86
25%
3.99
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.84
1.47
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
8%
12.48
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Tromso and 1.47 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tromso come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 17D 14L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Sarpsborg 08 FF sit at 1.37 PPG from 60 outings (24W 10D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Tromso against 1.37 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Tromso's home form reads 17W 7D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken 1.17 points per game from 30 outings (10W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tromso are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.87 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 29W 17D 14L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 24W 10D 26L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Tromso's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.93 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
1
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 5, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Tromso, 67% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Tromso and 67% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Tromso's games and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Tromso's matches and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Tromso.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Tromso 0-3 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.36 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.47 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 35% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 60%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.73 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.