Molde 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Molde at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Haugesund travel to Aker Stadion to take on Molde in Eliteserien (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Molde have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Molde at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Molde are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Haugesund have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Molde 1.40 PPG, Haugesund 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Molde hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 6 wins compared to 0 for Haugesund and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Molde 2–1 Haugesund — a Molde win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Molde and goals — 6 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Molde trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Haugesund trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 60% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 70% | Haugesund 55%). Note also that Haugesund surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Molde recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.34 xG and Haugesund 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.372 / defence 0.833 | Haugesund attack 0.930 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.390. Molde carry an above-average attack rating of 1.372 — their 1.34 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Molde's last 35 games and Haugesund's last 34.
Result probabilities: Molde 43% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 30%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.35 | Draw 3.66 | Haugesund 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Molde 6 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Molde 50% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 5 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 43% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Molde 1.34 / Haugesund 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.372 / def 0.833 | Haugesund attack 0.930 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Molde (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Haugesund xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Molde vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does Molde vs Haugesund kick off?
Molde vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Molde 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Molde vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Haugesund part of?
Molde vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 5) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 43% chance of winning, Haugesund a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Molde and Haugesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Molde vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.37x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Molde's last 35 games and Haugesund's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.66
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Molde xG
Total xG
2.41
1.08
Haugesund xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Molde vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Molde and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Molde and 1.08 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Molde have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 40W 9D 11L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 19W 14D 27L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.23 PPG from their last 30 home games (21W 4D 5L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 6W 8D 16L from their last 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.27 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Molde have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
Molde (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Molde
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Molde vs Haugesund Form FAQs
What form are Molde and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 40W 9D 11L in their last 60 games (2.15 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Haugesund away?
Molde's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.23 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Molde or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Haugesund in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 9 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Molde have won each of the latest 10 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won Haugesund 0-3 Molde.
Molde's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Molde
0
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Molde vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Molde have won 10, Haugesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 November 2025: Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Haugesund?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 57%, Haugesund 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Molde and 50% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Molde vs Haugesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Molde and Haugesund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Molde's recent matches and 47% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Molde and Haugesund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Molde's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Molde and Haugesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Molde's recent matches and 60% of Haugesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 2-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.34 xG and Haugesund 1.08 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.37 / defence 0.83 against Haugesund attack 0.93 / defence 0.84, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 43% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 30%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 70%, Haugesund 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.