ODD Ballklubb 3-3 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Viking travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Viking's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: ODD Ballklubb 1.20 PPG, Viking 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Viking and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Viking in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 55% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 55% | Viking 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.26 xG and Viking 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.138 / defence 1.158 | Viking attack 0.881 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.361. Data: 35 ODD Ballklubb games / 34 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 26% | Viking 40%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: ODD Ballklubb 60% | Viking 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 26% | Viking 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.26 / Viking 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.138 / def 1.158 | Viking attack 0.881 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Viking (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Viking xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Viking kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Viking kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
ODD Ballklubb 3 - 3 Viking.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Viking is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 34% chance of winning, Viking a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
Record (8 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 4W | Draws 2 | Viking 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Viking in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Viking (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.14x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
34%
2.95
26%
3.84
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.65
1.39
Viking xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
8%
11.82
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.39 for Viking, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 23W 14D 23L from 60 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 21L across 60 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.38 PPG, Viking on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 15W 5D 10L from 30 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 12W 5D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.82 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 68%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Viking in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Viking have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Viking away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.67 PPG; Viking away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Viking runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Viking specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
2
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Viking have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 57%, Viking 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for ODD Ballklubb and 67% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 67% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 67% of Viking's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Viking tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Viking in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb and Viking share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 5, as ODD Ballklubb and Viking drew 3-3 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.26 xG and Viking 1.39 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Viking outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.14 / defence 1.16 against Viking attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 26% | Viking 40%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 55%, Viking 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.38 PPG, Viking 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.