Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Stromsgodset.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Stromsgodset at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bodo/Glimt stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, Stromsgodset 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 65% versus Stromsgodset 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Stromsgodset 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.41 xG and Stromsgodset 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.074 / defence 0.799 | Stromsgodset attack 0.993 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.374. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Bodo/Glimt games / 35 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 44% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 29%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Stromsgodset 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Stromsgodset 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 44% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.41 / Stromsgodset 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.074 / def 0.799 | Stromsgodset attack 0.993 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Stromsgodset xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Bodo/Glimt 1 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 44% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
Record (6 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 3W | Draws 2 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.07) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.76
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.50
1.09
Stromsgodset xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
7%
14.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.09 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 40W 10D 10L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 22W 9D 29L from 60 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 2.27 PPG from 30 outings (20W 8D 2L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 7W 6D 17L from 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.73 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.35 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 10D 10L in their last 60 games (2.17 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 22W 9D 29L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Stromsgodset away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.27 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 63%, Stromsgodset 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Bodo/Glimt) and 43% (Stromsgodset). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 63% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 40% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 43% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Stromsgodset 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Stromsgodset 1-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.41 xG and Stromsgodset 1.09 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stromsgodset landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.07 / defence 0.80 against Stromsgodset attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 44% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 29%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 72%, Stromsgodset 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.